Two-Person Race? Moderates, and Bernie Sanders, Say Not So Fast

COLUMBUS, Ohio — For months, the Democratic presidential race has seemed to move inexorably toward a confrontation between former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. As Ms. Warren gathered financial support and strength in the polls, Mr. Biden steadily slid on both fronts while the rest of the Democratic field stagnated with voters. A jumbled primary appeared on the verge of becoming a contest between two front-runners.

But the debate in central Ohio on Tuesday night showed that the rest of the Democratic pack was not ready to yield.

From the moderate wing of the party, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., and Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota are now confronting Ms. Warren directly on her policy views and challenging Mr. Biden implicitly for his status as the party’s dominant centrist. From the left, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has returned to the race with force after a heart attack that shook his candidacy, collecting valuable endorsements from prominent left-wing women in Congress, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Klobuchar, in assailing Ms. Warren by name, and Mr. Sanders, in rolling out endorsements from the most coveted figures in progressive politics, are acknowledging the same urgency about halting the drift toward a two-person primary.

But that task could be easier because of what may ultimately prove to be this week’s most consequential development: Mr. Biden, who raised $6.3 million on the day he entered the race in April, revealed Tuesday that he has run through so much money that he has less than $9 million left. That is far less than what the two leading liberals in the race, Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren, as well as Mr. Buttigieg, have on hand.

Mr. Biden insisted on Wednesday that he was “confident” in his financial position and was not contemplating any changes to his campaign because of money. But between Mr. Biden’s apparent weakness, the sudden onslaught against Ms. Warren and signs of new relevance from Mr. Sanders, there is now at least enough uncertainty in the race to encourage even long-shot candidates to persist.

“People have been saying the race was going to solidify into Biden-versus-Warren,” said Paul Begala, a longtime Democratic strategist. “I think instead it has become more fluid than ever.”

Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, who is backing Ms. Klobuchar, said in an interview Wednesday he believed there was still plenty of room to make headway in the Democratic race, because many voters were only now “really listening and tuning in.”

“It felt like the moment is here,” Mr. Walz said of the debate.

Without criticizing other candidates by name, Mr. Walz predicted Ms. Klobuchar would appeal to “a broader swath of folks” beyond activists on the left, and also to voters’ “hunger to get back to a decency and a normalcy” — political currents Mr. Biden has sought to tap into, with mixed success.

Mr. Biden and Ms. Warren, of course, continue to loom over their rivals and it is unlikely that the debate will prompt an immediate change in fortunes for either candidate. On Wednesday, Mr. Biden attempted to reassert himself by taking on Ms. Warren in more caustic terms at an event in Ohio. He called it “absolutely ridiculous” that Ms. Warren had not been clearer about how she would pay for a “Medicare for all” system and challenged her to be “candid and honest” about it.

At the moment, Ms. Warren appears to have an upper hand in most of the early-voting states, along with a powerful campaign war chest stocked with a reservoir of online donors, while Mr. Biden still holds a slight lead in national polls and the conviction among many older Democrats that he would be the safest nominee to challenge President Trump.

Yet both Mr. Biden and Ms. Warren have vulnerabilities that their underdog opponents are now determined to exploit: his poll numbers have dropped steadily since the start of the summer and his campaign is in the midst of a financial crunch. And Ms. Warren must still allay Democratic concerns about her strength as a general-election candidate and strike a delicate balance between locking down liberal voters who also like Mr. Sanders while growing her support among moderates and racial minorities.

Aaron Pickrell, an Ohio-based Democratic strategist, said the debate had shown that “other candidates getting into the top tier is not insurmountable.” Both Ms. Klobuchar and Mr. Buttigieg, he said, had begun to break through with a message of Midwestern pragmatism that could appeal to voters in the early states.

“They’re setting themselves up as a potential alternative for Biden,” Mr. Pickrell said. “You can see these folks breaking through when we get to Iowa.”

Surveys there indicate that about half the Democrats planning to participate in the caucuses are moderate or conservative; many of these voters have said they are uncommitted or are supporting Mr. Biden but willing to change their minds.

Some candidates have more maneuvering room than others to challenge the two leaders: Whereas Mr. Buttigieg and Mr. Sanders are flush with cash, Ms. Klobuchar is in a far more tenuous financial position and has yet to qualify for the debate in November. At least a few other candidates who took an assertive approach Tuesday are in similar straits, straining to raise money or meet the debate threshold or both.

What could prove decisive in Iowa, and beyond, is if centrist voters coalesce behind a single candidate or fracture among the group of hopefuls presenting themselves as pragmatists. If Mr. Biden cannot recover a measure of momentum, but holds on to enough support to block other candidates from building a coalition of more moderate Democrats, it could allow Ms. Warren or Mr. Sanders to roll through the earliest primaries and caucuses with relatively weak opposition.

This scenario, of a sort of zombie Biden candidacy, is what most alarms supporters of other center-left Democrats in the race.

Mayor Nan Whaley of Dayton, Ohio, a close ally of Mr. Buttigieg, predicted the South Bend mayor would now “dig down deep in Iowa and New Hampshire,” carrying his message from the debate — a combination of uplifting rhetoric about the future and blunt criticism of certain progressive policies — into the early states where he’s polling in fourth place.

Ms. Whaley said she expected Mr. Buttigieg, 37, to make a determined effort to displace Mr. Biden as the candidate seen as most capable of speaking to Midwesterners.

“What you have with Pete is, you have somebody who speaks so amazingly well to this part of the country and is incredibly electable,” Ms. Whaley said, adding, “What Biden does is, he tells you all he’s done for us, which really hasn’t been enough because we’ve had 30 years of failed policy in the Midwest.”

But it is not Mr. Buttigieg who is depending on millennials to claim the nomination — it’s the oldest candidate in the race, the 78-year-old Mr. Sanders.

And that is why his endorsements from Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota — and an expected one from Rashida Tlaib of Michigan — could prove so vital to at least sustaining his campaign. Their appeal with younger progressives offers Mr. Sanders a vote of confidence he can trumpet to the voting bloc that makes up his strongest constituency.

That cue has particular resonance in this moment, when even some of the senator’s supporters have been wondering about his prospects following his hospitalization and acknowledgment that he may have to slow down the pace of his campaign.

“Their endorsement is huge in validating him as a face for the party and movement going forward,” said Representative Ro Khanna of California, a co-chair of Mr. Sanders’s campaign.

Mr. Khanna said the backing from three women of color would help Mr. Sanders in another crucial way at a time when Democrats are moving left on racial issues — by rebutting the criticism that his is a niche campaign for white, left-wing men.

“It’s hard to say we’re just Bernie Bros when you have the most visible progressives from communities of color coming out and saying, ‘We’re for Bernie Sanders,’” Mr. Khanna argued. “That’s more powerful than what Bernie Sanders or any of his co-chairs can say about his polling or support.”

The question now, for Mr. Sanders and the other well-funded contenders, is how they begin spending their money. With the race moving into the fall and the candidates needing ways to get attention amid saturation of coverage with the impeachment inquiry, many Democrats expect the attacks on the debate stage to begin playing out on the airwaves.

Even more than the verbal fisticuffs and flashy endorsements, it was Mr. Biden’s comparably weak financial standing that prompted many Democrats to think a new phase may be at hand.

“That went off like a bomb this morning,” said Mr. Begala, noting that his phone was “blowing up with texts” about the putative front-runner’s money struggles.

Mr. Biden’s problem could be even more dire than it appears, Mr. Begala said. That’s because he is so reliant on raising money from wealthy donors, who are often fickle and want to pick a winner, while those who outraised him can keep bringing in contributions online without devoting so much time and money to finance events.

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