Live Updates Ahead of Tonight’s Democratic Debate

October 15, 2019 En Sound Media Politics Comments Off on Live Updates Ahead of Tonight’s Democratic Debate

Each of the 12 candidates onstage tonight will be looking for standout moments. But if history is a guide, avoiding the wrong kind of standout moment may be even more important. However superficial it may be, a gaffe at a debate can destroy a campaign, as New York Times political reporters explored in a video today. Just look at Rick Perry’s “oops” moment in 2011, when he forgot the name of the third government agency he promised to eliminate as president, or Gerald Ford misspeaking in 1976 and saying Russia did not have influence in Eastern Europe. That moment was especially devastating for Ford because it played directly into an image many voters already had of him.

Occasionally, candidates can give themselves a boost or take out an opponent in one fell swoop. But more often, even the most well-placed attack will hurt the target more than it helps the attacker. Take Chris Christie, who went after Marco Rubio in 2016 for using canned lines. Mr. Rubio was badly wounded, but the Christie campaign went nowhere. It’s one more piece of evidence that when the points are tallied at the end of the night, voters may be swayed more by who lost than who won.

Much of the discussion here in Ohio Tuesday has been about the interview that ABC broadcast this morning of Mr. Biden’s son, Hunter Biden. The younger Biden acknowledged “poor judgment” in working for a Ukrainian energy company while his father was vice president, but said he had done nothing wrong.

The interview drew predictable wrath from Republicans aligned with President Trump — many of whom are the children of powerful officials even though they denigrated the Bidens with charges of nepotism. But so far Mr. Biden’s fellow Democrats have steered clear of the issue.

When the topic comes up during tonight’s debate, expect Mr. Biden’s onstage rivals to jump to his defense. Mr. Buttigieg did so Sunday, saying Hunter Biden was being held to “different standards” than the Trump children, who are engaged in their own international business dealings. Mr. Biden responded by calling Mr. Buttigieg “a good man.”

There will likely be more of that sentiment tonight. Democratic voters have shown little tolerance for their candidates echoing Mr. Trump’s attacks — nobody running has questioned Ms. Warren’s claims of Native American heritage. So when the inevitable moderator question about Mr. Biden’s son happens tonight, it may serve as a kumbaya moment

After Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Ohio by a stunning eight points in 2016, some strategists are no longer considering the state a battleground. But as The Times highlighted this week, Ohio Democrats are not so sure.

They point to several signs that their state is still up for grabs, including last year’s midterms where Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, easily won re-election, and the flipping of six statehouse seats from red to blue. Republicans still won every state constitutional office last year, from governor on down, but Mr. Trump’s popularity in Ohio is no better than his national approval rating of 42 percent. That is not surprising, given that the president has largely failed to deliver on his promises to bring back lost blue-collar jobs.

There are a number of ways that the Buckeye State could influence how the election unfolds, and it has a notable track record: Ohio has voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1944, except one — it chose Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy in 1960.

Senator Elizabeth Warren enters the debate with her campaign on the rise. She now rivals Mr. Biden atop national polls, and she raised significantly more money than he did in the past three months (though she narrowly trailed Senator Bernie Sanders for the largest haul in the field). Ms. Warren has offered crisp performances on the debate stage so far this year, and when she answers questions, she is particularly adept at sticking to the messages that animate her campaign — which revolves around the need for “big, structural change.”

There is no reason to expect she will depart from that approach at tonight’s debate. More than ever, though, Ms. Warren stands as a prime target for her rivals, given her strength in the race. She has already been jabbed over her support of “Medicare for all” and her refusal to address whether she would raise taxes on the middle class to help finance such a health care system. But going after Ms. Warren, who is highly popular among Democratic voters, is also a dangerous move for other candidates, as voters may not be keen to reward negative attacks within the Democratic field.

Maggie Astor and Thomas Kaplan contributed reporting.

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