Intelligence From al-Baghdadi Raid Could Reveal Trove of ISIS Clues

WASHINGTON — The intelligence material that commandos seized from the now-destroyed compound where Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was hiding is likely to contain revelations about his leadership of the Islamic State and could provide a wealth of details about the group’s operations, current and former American officials said.

But they did not expect to find intelligence that would quickly generate follow-up strikes on the Islamic State after Mr. al-Baghdadi, the world’s most wanted terrorist, was killed in a nighttime raid over the weekend in northwest Syria, the officials said.

The likely absence of information that the military could immediately act on underscores intelligence analysts’ view that Mr. al-Baghdadi no longer exercised direct operational control over the group. Officials cautioned that the Pentagon, the C.I.A. and other intelligence agencies were still conducting a preliminary review of the confiscated documents and electronic records.

The trove of information could nonetheless shed critical light on how the Islamic State operated, including planning and financial information. Islamic State famously kept extensive records on its brutal rule in Iraq and Syria, and some former intelligence officials suggested that Mr. al-Baghdadi might have left behind lists of deputies, couriers, contacts and other information that would be useful to American counterterrorism officials.

“ISIS was a bureaucratic organization,” Nicholas J. Rasmussen, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, said Monday. “Did he carry any of that stuff around? Rosters of people from other countries. Foreign fighters. Does he have all of that on a disk?”

He added, “It is all about building an understanding of the organization and how it functions.”

The Delta Force commandos who seized the intelligence also captured two prisoners who might also provide information on the Islamic State. They were in American custody, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Monday, but declined to give details.

Intelligence officials will also look for material about ties between Mr. al-Baghdadi and the Islamic State’s affiliates in other countries. That could help the American government better understand how quickly the affiliates could move in a different direction from the core Islamic State group without Mr. al-Baghdadi.

“It will also provide useful insights into the extent to which Baghdadi exerted operational control over ISIS remnants in other countries,” said Norm Roule, a former C.I.A. officer and expert on the Middle East.

Because Mr. al-Baghdadi moved around, the amount of material at the compound may have been limited. Still, even a few thumb drives, computers or other devices could provide huge amounts of data.

And Delta Force commandos who gathered the material after the raid spent two hours or so on the ground and collected a large amount of material, a person familiar with their search said.

The intelligence could also yield clues about the next leaders of the Islamic State, clarifying for intelligence agencies whether a potential successor is preparing to take over and assert control over both Islamic State fighters in Syria as well as its affiliates.

“We should be on the lookout for a personality who seeks to replace Baghdadi and create ISIS 2.0,” Mr. Roule said.

Mr. al-Baghdadi was unusual among terrorist leaders in his ability to both inspire overseas attacks as well as command them, according to intelligence officials. While he directed cells of Islamic State militants who conducted attacks in Europe, his propagandists also inspired lone gunmen in Europe and the United States to mount attacks that were much harder to detect and prevent.

During its campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the United States military focused less on targeting traditional leadership and more on hunting and killing the group’s best propagandists and English language translators. The campaign ultimately diminished the group’s ability to inspire attacks, military officials believed, but they are hopeful they can learn more about the impact of their strikes by analyzing the information seized from Mr. al-Baghdadi’s compound.

Fully examining the intelligence from the raid could take months, according to American officials, who compared the coming workload to the C.I.A.’s examination of the materials seized during the deadly 2011 raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan.

Intelligence agencies spent months reviewing that material — and senior officials said that analysts continued to examine some of it for insights on Al Qaeda.

The bin Laden intelligence yielded important details on how he ran Al Qaeda, how he communicated with the outside world and his relationships with other Qaeda leaders. American officials said they hoped for similar information from the al-Baghdadi trove.

Any more raw information from the al-Baghdadi raid is unlikely to materialize. After the Delta Force troops swept the compound and left, American warplanes and drones destroyed the compound and its tunnel network in a series of airstrikes, with the intention of keeping the site from becoming a shrine.

Helene Cooper contributed reporting.

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