Independent Voters See Economy Improving, a Potential Boon to Trump

But Ms. Mazur-Hofmann, 61, doubts the good times will last. She worries about the national debt and fears Mr. Trump will cut Social Security. And even if the economy remains strong, Ms. Mazur-Hofmann said, she will not vote for Mr. Trump in November because of how he treats people.

“I’ll never vote for Trump — never, never, never in a million years,” she said.

Democrats on the campaign trail have not shied away from talking about the economy, although they describe it in very different terms than Mr. Trump does. Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, in particular, have run on policies that they say would reduce inequality and make the economy fairer. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has pledged to rebuild the middle class.

Liberal groups are urging Democratic candidates to frame economic issues this year in a matter that could counter Mr. Trump’s appeals.

A national poll released this week by Navigator Research, which is overseen by leaders of several progressive organizations, tested voter agreement with various descriptions of the economy. It found that progressive messages scored best when they were phrased around disparities in how the economy was performing for the very rich compared with everyone else. For example: “The gap between the wealthiest Americans and everyone else has never been bigger — we need big, bold changes in Washington to unrig the economic system so working people can get ahead.”

Democratic arguments are resonating with some voters. Rafael Corrales, 24, recently moved back home to Omaha, in part because rents in Seattle, where he had been living, climbed too high. An independent voter and the first member of his family to graduate from college, Mr. Corrales is now looking for work.

His parents, a construction worker and a teacher’s aide, have not seen a raise in years. Health insurance premiums keep going up. His friends are drowning in student debt.

“Many of my friends have thousands of dollars in loans, and they still don’t have a job in their field and they’re working in a grocery store,” he said. “Maybe for people who do have money in the stock market or have higher earnings, it has improved. But for the average American, I don’t think it has improved at all.”

About the survey: The data in this article came from an online survey of 2,969 adults conducted by the polling firm SurveyMonkey from Jan. 6 to 12. The company selected respondents at random from the nearly three million people who take surveys on its platform each day. Responses were weighted to match the demographic profile of the population of the United States. The survey has a modeled error estimate (similar to a margin of error in a standard telephone poll) of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, so differences of less than that amount are statistically insignificant.

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