If the labor market shows signs of cracking, though, “the odds for a cut in December will probably look like October does now,” Mr. Dutta said.
Should economic data weaken further, economists said, it is possible the Fed would move from its current mode — one in which it’s playing a protective offense — to all-out defense. They could signal that more aggressive rate cuts are coming, rather than the gentle midbusiness cycle adjustments underway.
The data have yet to call for that change in stance, because there are many signs that economic activity is holding up. Wages are growing, though the pace has stopped accelerating. Unemployment is near a half-century low. Consumers continue to spend, and housing starts have headed higher.
But the bright spots are getting fewer and farther between. Tiffany Wilding, chief United States economist at PIMCO, pointed out in a research note that the current level of manufacturing and service indexes has historically come alongside 1 percent overall growth.
If the economy heads in that direction, it will be a major change from the 2.2 percent gross domestic product gains Fed officials expect in 2019.
Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on Bloomberg Television on Thursday that he had yet to decide whether the central bank should cut rates this month. But asked whether investors overreacted to weak manufacturing data by ramping up bets for a rate cut, he said, “It was an important piece of data — I don’t know if it was an overreaction.”
Mr. Evans, who spoke before weak service industry data had been released, said the Fed was monitoring incoming information as it headed toward its Oct. 30 decision.
“We’ll learn more before the meeting at the end of this month,” he said. “Whether or not one more rate cut at this point is the right decision or not, I think we’re just going to have to go into the meeting and see.”